From Unimate to Humanoids
Industrial robotics began in 1961 with
a hydraulic arm installed in a General Motors plant, and today more than five
million units operate in the world’s factories. This article retraces that
history with a constant structure (technical milestone, Japan, the United
States, Europe and China), updates the figures with the IFR’s September 2026
reports, and separates three kinds of claims that are often blended: measured
facts, company targets and analyst scenarios. The conclusion is less tidy than
the familiar formula of “Japan, quality; the United States, innovation; China,
scale.”
1. The foundations (1961–1989): from hydraulics to electricity
Technical milestone. The first industrial robot, the Unimate of George Devol and Joseph Engelberger, went into service in 1961 at General Motors’ Inland Fisher Guide plant in Ewing Township, New Jersey, handling die-cast parts [1]. It was a hydraulically driven arm with magnetic-drum memory. The next break came from Sweden: in 1974 ASEA launched the IRB 6, the first commercially available all-electric, microprocessor-controlled robot; development had begun in 1970 and a patent was granted in 1972 [3]. By 1992 ASEA had sold nearly 2,000 IRB 6 units [4]. The shift to electric drives therefore starts in the 1970s and becomes general in the 1980s.
United States. It supplied the founding technology, but Unimation chose to license it: in October 1968 it signed a technical agreement with Kawasaki that opened the door to Japan’s industry [2].
Japan. Kawasaki was the entry point. Yaskawa showed its first MOTOMAN in 1974 and in 1977 sold the MOTOMAN-L10, Japan’s first all-electric industrial robot, modeled on ASEA’s electric articulated robot [6]. FANUC, independent from Fujitsu since 1972, began commercial production and shipment of robots in 1977 [5]. Japan was also a humanoid pioneer: Waseda University completed WABOT-1 in 1973 [7].
Europe. Sweden’s ASEA pioneered the commercial electric robot; in 1988 it merged with Switzerland’s BBC to form ABB [4]. Together with Germany’s KUKA, ABB would later make up the group known as the “Big Four” alongside FANUC and Yaskawa.
China. Still in the research stage: the Shenyang Institute of Automation of the Chinese Academy of Sciences developed China’s first teach-and-playback industrial robot prototype in 1982 [17].
2. Consolidation and opening (1990–2009)
Technical milestone. Robots became easier to program, gained basic machine vision, and moved from automotive plants into electronics and logistics. The most visible leap happened outside the factory: the da Vinci surgical system received FDA clearance for general laparoscopic surgery in July 2000 [9], and iRobot’s Roomba (2002) brought the robot into the home.
Japan. It kept its industrial hegemony and led humanoid research until the early 2000s [8]. Honda began a confidential project in 1986, showed the P2 prototype in 1996 and presented ASIMO in 2000 [7, 8].
United States. It shifted toward mobile, medical and service robotics. Boston Dynamics was founded in 1992 as an MIT spin-off by Marc Raibert [10]; for years its advanced locomotion systems stayed in the realm of research and defense.
Europe. ABB and KUKA remained among the reference suppliers in the traditional industrial segments.
China. SIASUN was founded in 2000 as a spin-off of the Shenyang Institute of Automation [16, 17]. Foreign brands dominated the Chinese market: even between 2019 and 2021, local suppliers’ share was only around 30% [22].
3. Cobots, logistics and artificial intelligence (2010–2025)
Technical milestone. Collaborative robots appear, designed to work alongside people without rigid fences, and AI enters practice: advanced vision, learning and autonomous navigation. The segment’s reference was Denmark’s Universal Robots, acquired in 2015 by the US company Teradyne for $285 million plus up to $65 million tied to targets; it had already sold more than 4,000 units [12].
United States. Logistics was its terrain. Amazon bought Kiva Systems in 2012 for about $775 million [11], the origin of its fleet of mobile robots. Boston Dynamics passed through Google (December 2013), SoftBank (June 2017) and Hyundai, which acquired 80% in December 2020 for about $880 million and completed the deal in June 2021 [10]. Spot went on sale to the public in June 2020 [10].
Japan. It remained the largest manufacturer: in 2018 it delivered 52% of the world supply of industrial robots, according to the IFR [25]. Its home market, however, is weakening: installations fell 4% in 2024 and accounted for 8% of the world total [20].
Europe. Two emblematic assets changed hands. Germany’s KUKA was acquired by China’s Midea: the bid, of about €4.5 billion, was launched in 2016 and the deal closed in January 2017 with 94.55% of the capital [13, 14]. In October 2025, ABB agreed to sell its robotics division to SoftBank for $5.375 billion, with closing expected between mid and late 2026 [15]; the sources consulted do not yet confirm that it has been completed.
China. It has been the world’s largest market since 2013 [20]. Local suppliers’ share accelerated from 2022: since 2024 more than half of Chinese installations are from Chinese brands [22], reaching 55% in 2025 [23]. Estun, with roots in motion control and automation components, was, according to a Frost & Sullivan report cited in its listing prospectus, the first local maker to lead the Chinese market by shipment volume, in the first half of 2025 [18]. In humanoids, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) set in November 2023 the goal of mass production by 2025 and of making them a new growth engine by 2027 [34].
4. October 2026: where we stand
The most recent data come from the World Robotics 2026 report, published by the IFR on 24 September 2026. In 2025, 603,307 industrial robots were installed, 11% more than the year before and an all-time high; the operational stock passed five million units [21, 22]. Asia accounted for 76% of installations, while Europe contracted by 14% [22]. Table 1 summarizes the main figures.
Two caveats help in reading these figures. First, the main customer is no longer just the automotive industry: in 2025 electrical and electronics was the largest buyer, with 142,235 units, followed by automotive with 138,429 [22]. Second, density measures robots per worker, not total volume, so small, highly automated countries such as Korea and Singapore top the ranking even though China installs more than half of the world’s robots [24, 22].
Humanoids: few, fast and poorly measured. There is no single official statistic. According to Omdia, about 13,000 humanoids shipped worldwide in 2025, almost six times the previous year: AgiBot led with 5,168 units (39%), Unitree shipped 4,200 and UBTECH about 1,000 [26, 28]. Other Chinese companies and the US firms Figure AI, Agility Robotics and Tesla each shipped between 150 and 500 units [27]. Unitree says it delivered more than 5,500 [29, 30], and Counterpoint estimates that China accounted for more than four in five humanoids sold [29]. The orders of magnitude agree (tens of thousands, not millions), but the exact figures depend on what counts as a humanoid and who reports.
The IFR itself is cautious: in its 2026 summary it notes that most humanoids remain prototypes or pilots, that conventional industrial robots are today economically superior for production, and that broad deployment will depend on substantial improvements in reliability, safety, operating time and economic viability [22]. In November 2025, China’s National Development and Reform Commission warned that a bubble might be forming in the sector [29]. Unitree, for its part, launched in July 2026 its initial public offering on Shanghai’s STAR Market, seeking about 4.2 billion yuan [30, 31]; the sources consulted do not allow us to confirm the final outcome of the listing.
Tesla. Optimus was unveiled in 2021 and, as of September 2026, Tesla had still not publicly shown its third generation; the company said it is installing production lines at Fremont designed for one million robots a year, and that a second line in Texas aims in the long term at ten million [32]. Announced timelines have slipped several times, and third-quarter results, expected in late October, will be the next occasion to see whether they hold [33].
5. Toward 2045: facts, targets and scenarios
The last third of any
article on robotics mixes three different things. Table 2 separates them.
The scenarios diverge by orders of magnitude. Goldman Sachs Research estimated in its 2024 report an addressable market of $38 billion by 2035, six times its prior figure [35], with about 1.4 million units a year according to press coverage of the report [36]. Morgan Stanley projects a market above $5 trillion in 2050, a figure that includes supply chains and repair and maintenance services, and more than 1 billion humanoids in use [37]; press coverage adds about 13 million units in service by 2035 [38]. Omdia, for its part, projects 2.6 million annual shipments in 2035 [28]. For conventional industrial machines, the IFR forecasts 806,000 annual installations in 2029 [22]. The distance between these figures is not an error: it reflects different horizons, definitions and assumptions, which is why every figure should be cited with analyst, year and scenario.
With that caution, this is the most likely scenario for the next two decades:
• Japan would keep its weight in high-reliability industrial robots and, above all, in components: Nabtesco holds about 60% of the world market for RV reducers for medium and large robots, according to Morningstar [42]. Its home market is small, but Japanese capital is moving toward “physical AI,” as SoftBank’s purchase of ABB Robotics shows [15].
• The United States would continue to set the frontier in software, AI applied to robots and logistics (Amazon), with medical and defense applications. In humanoids, its companies shipped hundreds of units in 2025, not thousands [27].
• China has a high probability of leading production volume and adoption, backed by its supply chain and industrial policy [34]; it already accounts for more than 80% of humanoids sold [29] and 59% of industrial installations [23]. Its risk is overheating: its own planning authority warned of a possible bubble [29].
• Europe retains standards, installed base and engineering capacity, but faces weak demand (−14% in 2025) and has sold strategic assets (KUKA to Midea; ABB Robotics to SoftBank) [22, 13, 15].
• South Korea leads the world in robot density [24] and, through Hyundai, controls Boston Dynamics [10].
6. Bottlenecks and rules of the game
Critical components. A robot is a sum of precision reducers, motors, sensors and chips. Precision reducers, a segment with a strong Japanese presence [42], and rare-earth magnets, concentrated in China, are the two clearest examples. China has required export licenses for seven medium and heavy rare earths since April 2025; the broader October 2025 package was suspended for one year after negotiations with the United States, and that pause expires in November 2026 (sources differ between the 10th and the 27th of that month) [39, 40]. Elon Musk acknowledged in 2025 that the restrictions affected Optimus development [41], and Morgan Stanley observes that almost every developer in the world depends on critical components from China and elsewhere in Asia [37].
Safety and regulation. In February 2025 the new ISO 10218-1 and ISO 10218-2 were published; they incorporate the requirements of the former ISO/TS 15066 specification on collaborative applications, define new robot classes and add cybersecurity requirements [43, 44]. In the European Union, Regulation (EU) 2023/1230 on machinery applies from 20 January 2027 and replaces Directive 2006/42/EC [45]; the Artificial Intelligence Act, Regulation (EU) 2024/1689, adds a horizontal layer with obligations phased in over time [46].
The gap between demo and operation. A demonstration is not a working shift. What needs watching, following the IFR, is reliability, safety, operating hours and the real profitability of each deployment [22].
Employment, energy, ethics and data. These are real challenges, although their magnitude depends on the speed of adoption, which is precisely the most uncertain variable. The transition will be gradual and will begin in controlled environments, such as factories and warehouses, before reaching homes.
7. Conclusion
The formula “Japan contributed industrial excellence; the United States, innovation; China, scale” is useful but incomplete. Europe launched the first commercial electric, microprocessor-controlled robot (ASEA, 1974) [3]. Japan did not merely build better: it pioneered the humanoid, from WABOT-1 to ASIMO [7, 8]. The United States also has scale, that of Amazon’s fleets of mobile robots [11]. And China no longer just scales: its brands already hold more than half of its industrial market and its companies dominate humanoid shipments [23, 26].
The most prudent data point of 2026 comes from those who measure factories, not those who project markets: conventional industrial robots remain the economically superior option, and humanoids are still mostly pilots [22]. The most likely outcome is a gradual transition in which the robot moves from a specialized machine to an increasingly general tool; whether it becomes an everyday coworker will depend less on artificial intelligence than on reliability, cost, safety and supply chains.
Glossary
AMR (autonomous mobile robot) — A robot that moves on its own without fixed tracks or guides, using sensors and maps. It differs from an AGV, which follows predefined routes.
Big Four — Industry term for the four large traditional makers of industrial robots: FANUC, Yaskawa, ABB and KUKA.
Cobot (collaborative robot) — A robot designed to work in contact with or near people, without rigid fences, with limits on force and speed. Its safety requirements are now covered by the ISO 10218 series [43].
Embodied AI / physical AI — Artificial intelligence systems that perceive and act in the physical world through a robotic body.
End effector — The tool or gripper mounted at the end of a robot (welding, gripping, painting).
Hydraulic and electric — Two drive technologies. The Unimate was hydraulic (high force, complex maintenance); ASEA’s IRB 6 was the first commercial all-electric robot [3].
Humanoid — A robot whose shape and movement are inspired by the human body, normally bipedal. Some classifications exclude torsos mounted on wheeled bases.
IFR (International Federation of Robotics) — A federation of national associations, manufacturers and research centers that publishes World Robotics each year, the reference statistic on industrial and service robots.
Industrial robot — Under ISO 8373, an automatically controlled, reprogrammable, multipurpose manipulator, programmable in three or more axes, fixed or mobile, for industrial automation.
ISO 10218 — International safety standard for industrial robots (part 1) and for robot applications and cells (part 2); revised in 2025 [43].
Articulated robot — An arm with several rotary joints; the most common configuration of the industrial robot.
Rare-earth magnets (NdFeB) — Neodymium–iron–boron magnets, used in high-torque motors; their supply depends heavily on China and is subject to export controls.
Reducer (RV and harmonic) — A precision transmission that reduces speed and multiplies torque in each joint. The RV, a two-stage cycloidal design, is used on heavy axes; the harmonic, on wrists and cobots [42].
Robot density — Number of operational industrial robots per 10,000 manufacturing employees. It measures automation intensity, not absolute volume [24].
SCARA — An arm with joints in a horizontal plane, fast and precise, widely used in electronics assembly.
Service robot — A robot that performs useful tasks for people or equipment outside industrial automation: cleaning, logistics, surgery, inspection.
Shipments versus installations — Shipments count units delivered by the manufacturer; installations count units put into operation. Humanoid figures are usually shipments; the IFR’s industrial robot figures are installations.
STAR Market — The Shanghai Stock Exchange’s board for technology companies, launched in 2019.
Teleoperation — Remote control of a robot by a person; common in demonstrations and in collecting training data.
Total addressable market (TAM) — The theoretical maximum revenue of a product if adopted according to an analyst’s assumptions; it is not a sales forecast.
VLA (vision-language-action) — Models that combine vision, language and motor control to turn natural-language instructions into robot actions.
References
All sources were consulted on 17 October 2026. References 1 to 46 are grouped by topic.
A. History and companies
[1] Guinness World Records. “First industrial production robot” (Unimate, 1961, General Motors). https://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/411563-first-industrial-production-robot
[2] Kawasaki Robotics. History: technical agreement with Unimation (October 1968). https://robotics.kawasaki.com/en1/anniversary/history/history_01.html
[3] ABB Review 2/2014. “Rise of the robot: celebrating 40 years of industrial robotics at ABB” (IRB 6, 1974). https://library.e.abb.com/public/8db01db124333c1bc1257ddc0046cdb7/ABB%20Review%202-2014_72dpi.pdf
[4] ABB. “125 Jahre ABB: Meilensteine” (IRB 6; ASEA–BBC merger, 1988). https://new.abb.com/ch/125-jahre-abb/meilensteine
[5] FANUC. “FANUC’s History” (1972; commercial robot production, 1977). https://www.fanuc.co.jp/en/profile/history/
[6] Yaskawa. “The Birth of MOTOMAN.” https://www.yaskawa-global.com/technology/history/robotics
[7] Waseda University. “A Quick Visit to the Humanoid Robotics Institute” (WABOT-1, 1973; ASIMO, 2000). https://www.waseda.jp/inst/cro/news-en/2025/06/03/19639/
[8] Redalyc. “Robots that look like humans: a brief look into humanoid robotics” (Honda P2 and ASIMO). https://www.redalyc.org/journal/5117/511766773023/
[9] Intuitive Surgical. Second-quarter 2000 results release (FDA clearance, 11 July 2000). https://investor.intuitivesurgical.com/news-releases/news-release-details/intuitive-surgical-announces-second-quarter-results
[10] Wikipedia. “Boston Dynamics” (secondary source). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boston_Dynamics
[11] CNNMoney. “Amazon buys army of robots” (Kiva Systems, 20 March 2012). https://money.cnn.com/2012/03/20/technology/amazon-kiva-robots/
[12] Universal Robots / Teradyne. Acquisition announcement (13 May 2015). https://www.universal-robots.com/fr/actualites-et-medias/centre-d-actualites/teradyne-and-universal-robots-announce-agreement-for-teradyne-to-acquire-universal-robots-leader-in-collaborative-robots/
[13] AidData. Midea’s acquisition of KUKA (closed 6 January 2017). https://china.aiddata.org/projects/102145
[14] Industriemagazin. “Jetzt ist die Kuka-Übernahme durch Midea durch” (€4.5 billion bid). https://industriemagazin.at/artikel/jetzt-ist-die-kuka-uebernahme-durch-midea-durch/
[15] SoftBank Group. “Acquisition of ABB Ltd’s Robotics Business” (8 October 2025). https://group.softbank/en/news/press/20251008
[16] China Daily. SIASUN profile (2009). https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bw/2009-02/16/content_7478545.htm
[17] 36Kr. History of the Shenyang Institute of Automation and SIASUN (1982 prototype). https://eu.36kr.com/en/p/3645860988243845
[18] Estun Automation. Hong Kong listing profile, with Frost & Sullivan data (secondary source). https://futures.etnet.com.hk/www/eng/stocks/ci_ipo_detail.php?code=02715
B. Industrial robot figures (IFR)
[19] IFR. “Global Robot Demand in Factories Doubles Over 10 Years” (World Robotics 2025, 25 September 2025). https://ifr.org/ifr-press-releases/news/global-robot-demand-in-factories-doubles-over-10-years
[20] IFR. Executive summary, World Robotics 2025 – Industrial Robots. https://ifr.org/img/worldrobotics/Executive_Summary_WR_2025_Industrial_Robots.pdf
[21] IFR. “Five Million Robots now Operate in Factories Globally” (World Robotics 2026, 24 September 2026). https://ifr.org/ifr-press-releases/five-million-robots-now-operate-in-factories-globally
[22] IFR. Executive summary, World Robotics 2026 – Industrial Robots. https://ifr.org/img/worldrobotics/Executive_Summary_WR_2026_-_Industrial_Robots.pdf
[23] IFR. “China Installs 59 Percent of World’s Industrial Robots” (24 September 2026). https://ifr.org/downloads/press_docs/EN-2026-SEP-24-IFR_Press_Release_WR-CHINA.pdf
[24] IFR. “Robot Density Surges in Europe, Asia, and Americas” (2024 data). https://ifr.org/news/robot-density-surges-in-europe-asia-and-americas/
[25] Bloomberg (content sponsored by the Government of Japan). “Japan: innovating the future of industrial robots” (citing the IFR, 2018). https://sponsored.bloomberg.com/article/japangov/japan-innovating-the-future-industrial-robots
C. Humanoids and industrial policy
[26] TechNode. “China’s AgiBot leads global humanoid robot shipments in 2025, Omdia says” (9 January 2026). https://technode.com/2026/01/09/chinas-agibot-leads-global-humanoid-robot-shipments-in-2025-omdia-says/
[27] China Daily. Omdia report on general-purpose embodied intelligent robots (10 January 2026). https://regional.chinadaily.com.cn/wic/2026-01/10/c_1155842.htm
[28] Telecoms.com. “Humanoid robot production goes exponential, led by China” (Omdia; 2.6 million units by 2035). https://www.telecoms.com/ai/humanoid-robot-production-goes-exponential-led-by-china
[29] Forklog. “China leads the robot race” (Counterpoint; NDRC warning; Unitree figures). https://forklog.com/en/china-leads-the-robot-race/
[30] Gasgoo. “Unitree launches STAR Market IPO issuance process” (July 2026). https://autonews.gasgoo.com/articles/news/unitree-launches-star-market-ipo-issuance-process-subscriptions-open-august-10-2083181368883253248
[31] Caixin. “Robotics startup Unitree launches $620 million STAR Market IPO” (31 July 2026). https://www.caixinglobal.com/2026-07-31/robotics-startup-unitree-launches-620-million-star-market-ipo-102469723.html
[32] Wikipedia. “Optimus (robot)” (status as of September 2026; secondary source). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optimus_(robot)
[33] RoboZaps. “Tesla Optimus Gen 3: release date & price” (status as of 10 August 2026; secondary source). https://blog.robozaps.com/b/tesla-optimus-gen-3
[34] MERICS. “Great robo-leap forward: MIIT charts path toward humanoid robots” (November 2023). https://merics.org/en/merics-briefs/humanoid-robots-chinas-charm-offensive-towards-foreign-firms-5g
D. Analyst scenarios
[35] Goldman Sachs Research. “The global market for humanoid robots could reach $38 billion by 2035.” https://goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/the-global-market-for-robots-could-reach-38-billion-by-2035
[36] Drives & Controls. “Mercedes and BMW explore using humanoid robots” (coverage of the Goldman Sachs report; secondary source). https://m.drivesncontrols.com/news/fullstory.php/aid/7635/Mercedes_and_BMW_explore_using_humanoid_robots_.html
[37] Morgan Stanley. “Humanoids: a $5 trillion market” (14 May 2025). https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/humanoid-robot-market-5-trillion-by-2050
[38] OODA Loop. “Humanoid robots seen as $5 trillion global opportunity at Morgan Stanley” (secondary source). https://oodaloop.com/briefs/technology/humanoid-robots-seen-as-5-trillion-global-opportunity-at-morgan-stanley/
E. Supply chain
[39] Project Blue. “China to suspend rare earth export controls for one year.” https://projectblue.com/blue/news-analysis/1356/china-to-suspend-rare-earth-export-controls-for-one-year-
[40] Clark Hill. “China hits ‘pause’ on rare-earth export controls and what it means for supply chains.” https://clarkhill.com/news-events/news/china-hits-pause-on-rare-earth-export-controls-and-what-it-means-for-supply-chains
[41] SAN. “Elon Musk says China’s rare earth export ban may delay Tesla’s humanoid robot” (May 2025). https://san.com/cc/elon-musk-says-chinas-rare-earth-export-ban-may-delay-teslas-humanoid-robot/
[42] Morningstar. Nabtesco profile (share of RV reducers; analyst report). https://www.morningstar.com/quotes/0P0000EKF2
F. Standards and regulation
[43] ISO. ISO 10218-2:2025, “Robotics — Safety requirements — Part 2.” https://www.iso.org/standard/73934.html
[44] Control Design. “ISO 10218 update makes functional-safety requirements more explicit” (18 February 2025). https://www.controldesign.com/industry-news/news/55268769/iso-10218-update-makes-functional-safety-requirements-more-explicit
[45] EU-OSHA. Regulation (EU) 2023/1230 on machinery. https://osha.europa.eu/en/legislation/directive/regulation-20231230eu-machinery
[46] European Union. Regulation (EU) 2024/1689 (AI Act), Official Journal. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2024/1689/oj
Verification note and limits
• Cut-off date. Data are verified as of 17 October 2026. Sources were consulted through web search; only the IFR 2026 executive summary was read in full.
• Humanoids. There is no single official figure. Omdia estimates about 13,000 shipments in 2025; Counterpoint and other consultancies cite figures above 16,000; Unitree claims more than 5,500 deliveries of its own.
• ABB–SoftBank. The deal was announced in October 2025 with closing expected between mid and late 2026; no confirmation of closing was found.
• Unitree. The launch of the public offering (July 2026) was verified, not the final outcome of the listing.
• Tesla. Status is as of September 2026; third-quarter results are expected in late October and may change the picture.
• Rare earths. Sources differ on the exact expiry date of the suspension (10 or 27 November 2026).
• Secondary sources. References 10, 14, 18, 25, 29, 32, 33, 36 and 38 are secondary or press sources; they should be checked against primary ones before publication.
• Facts without an open source in this review. The Roomba’s 2002 launch, the term “Big Four,” KUKA’s place in that group and the ISO 8373 definition in the glossary are commonly used and are cited from memory; no specific source was consulted. The EUR-Lex link (reference 46) is the official identifier, but the page was not opened.
• Robot density. China’s figure is omitted because IFR editions are not comparable with one another.
